Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what recent assessment she has made of the potential impact of the introduction of VAT for private school fees on levels of demand for state school places; and what steps she is taking to ensure the adequacy of the availability of school places in (a) Leicester East constituency and (b) England.

The department has made no estimate of the number of pupils in individual local authority areas who will leave the independent school system as a result of VAT on school fees. With regard to England, the government predicts that in the long-term steady state, there will be 37,000 fewer pupils in the private sector in the UK as a result of the removal of the VAT exemption applied to school fees. This represents around 6% of the current private school population.

​​Of the expected 37,000-pupil reduction in the private sector, the government estimates an increase of 35,000 pupils in the state sector in the steady state following the VAT policy taking effect, with the other 2,000 consisting of international pupils who do not move into the UK state system, and domestic pupils moving into homeschooling. This state sector increase represents less than 0.5% of total UK state school pupils, of which there are over nine million. This movement is expected to take place over several years.

The impact on the state education system as a whole is expected to be very small. Ending tax breaks on private schools will help raise revenue to drive forward the change the government is committed to delivering for the 94% of pupils who attend state schools.

​The impact on individual local authorities will interact with other pressures and vary.

​Every year many pupils move between schools, including between the private and state-funded sectors. Local authorities routinely support parents who need a state-funded school place, including where private schools have closed. Where local authorities are experiencing difficulties in ensuring there are enough school places for children that need them, the department will offer support and advice.

​​The department provides capital funding through the basic need grant to support local authorities to provide school places, based on their own pupil forecasts and school capacity data. They can use this funding to provide places in new schools or through expansions of existing schools. The department has already confirmed nearly £1.5 billion of allocations to support local authorities to create school places needed over the current, and next two, academic years, up to and including the academic year starting in September 2026, including just under £9.7 million for Leicester City Council.